冷數據:疫苗預防3個,造成死亡2個...



【30秒重點】

  • 評估要不要打疫苗時,可以問:要打多少人才能預防1例重症或死亡?
  • 這份分析用「需要接種人數」來比較,作者整理為疫苗每預防3例死亡,就可能造成2例死亡。
  • 研究作者建議重新考慮疫苗政策,只給自認感染風險較高、願意承擔風險的人打。
  • 研究作者也呼籲歐洲藥品管理局和各國啟動疫苗安全審查。

2021/06/25

順便也看一下NNTV (number needed to vaccinate)。荒謬不?

這邊是讓我自言自語的筆記本,記人世的荒謬。

5. Conclusions

The present assessment raises the question whether it would be necessary to rethink policies and use COVID-19 vaccines more sparingly and with some discretion only in those that are willing to accept the risk because they feel more at risk from the true infection than the mock infection. Perhaps it might be necessary to dampen the enthusiasm by sober facts? In our view, the EMA and national authorities should instigate a safety review into the safety database of COVID-19 vaccines and governments should carefully consider their policies in light of these data. Ideally, independent scientists should carry out thorough case reviews of the very severe cases, so that there can be evidence-based recommendations on who is likely to benefit from a SARS-CoV2 vaccination and who is in danger of suffering from side effects. Currently, our estimates show that we have to accept four fatal and 16 serious side effects per 100,000 vaccinations in order to save the lives of 2–11 individuals per 100,000 vaccinations, placing risks and benefits on the same order of magnitude.


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